Seattle's Progressives Ride the Blue Wave

[00:00:10] Hello and welcome to the latest special emergency tsunami edition of Seattle Nice, the only podcast that tells you what's really happening in Seattle politics. I'm David Hyde with Erica C. Barnett of Publicola. Erica, how are you doing? We're missing Sandeep tonight. He had a previous engagement apparently. He's off punditing, so we're going to pundit here. We're going to pundit a little bit here. And we're taping, it's 9 p.m. on election night. I'm just going to bring up the fact that so far Democrats have flipped six Republican-held U.S. Senate seats.

[00:00:40] The Republicans also lost one in Nebraska to an independent. We still don't know about Maine and Alaska. I mean this is like a holy fucking shit edition of Seattle Nice. Before we get to – I mean anything to say before we get to Seattle politics, which is what we're going to do, just about this national mood and what's just happened. Yeah. Well, I mean we can talk about this a little bit when we talk about the party I was at tonight. But I mean, man, you know, I don't have to be objective on here.

[00:01:09] So I will just say like, you know, I was in the middle of a crowd of elated people. I was one of the elated people. I never would have expected this. And I just – if you'll indulge me, I want to just take us back to a time in Texas when Texas used to be blue. It is hard for people to probably believe now, but it used to be a democratic state and in our lifetimes, David.

[00:01:34] So when I was first, you know, sort of coming – becoming politically aware in Texas and trying to decide kind of what I wanted to do for a living if I wanted to be in politics and activism or journalism, I worked on a campaign in 1998 for a Democratic state attorney general candidate and we lost.

[00:01:58] That was the, you know, huge red wave year of 1998 when Texas became, you know, overwhelmingly red. Republicans won most of the statewide seats, if not all of them. I want to say all. John Cornyn was the person that beat our candidate and it really crushed me, number one. I decided I'm not cut out for politics because I get way too emotionally involved and I just could not stand losing.

[00:02:25] But number two, it started this period that has gone on for decades now, for more than three decades of Texas being presumptively Republican. And no Democrat in Texas has won a statewide seat or statewide race in 32 years. And so to watch this overwhelming blue wave tonight, not just James Tallarico, not just Governor-elect Tino Josa. Which is – both of which are huge. Which are huge.

[00:02:52] I mean I certainly never thought I would see a Latina woman governor of Texas in my lifetime, a Democrat no less. But all the way down the line, I mean right now as we're recording, you know, we obviously don't have final results. But Democrats are sweeping the state races. They may take the house, the state house there. And so I got a little teary-eyed just kind of looking at this thing happening that, you know, I never thought I would see again in my lifetime in my home state. Yeah.

[00:03:21] Such an amazing night. I ended up talking to somebody earlier today who's an undocumented worker from south of the border. And this person was telling me that, you know, in her community here in Washington state, it's not Texas, but that in 2024, Trump was kind of popular among a subset of folks, many of whom were here illegally but also wanted more border controls. I mean, and I was kind of like, wow, that is really interesting.

[00:03:50] And they were like, Biden's border policies weren't that popular. But, oh gosh, it turns out like terrorizing children and terrorizing immigrants is also unpopular with that same community. So I don't know if it like means – like does it mean Texas is blue now or not blue? Like I don't know that we know all of that yet, but it's pretty promising at least for – it seems like at least some of the worst excesses of fucking Trump and MAGA are finally being reputed.

[00:04:18] And it's just like, oh, God, two years of hell. I mean, it's – Two more years of hell. Are you a little bit in shock? I'm in shock. Yeah. Yeah. It feels like you opened your presence and you're not sure like how to feel about it or something. It's just – it's a little – I mean, I'm sure how to feel about it. But yeah, it's astonishing. All right. Let us talk about Washington State because that is our premise here starting with Seattle. King County District 5, Nilu Jenks, Julie Kang.

[00:04:46] We kind of knew going into this one that Nelu had the edge after that primary. But what I'm seeing here is – if I have the numbers correct – it's around 60-40 for Nelu so far. And you got some tape from Nelu Jenks. So let's hear a little bit from Nelu Jenks. This election has put a spotlight on North Seattle and the needs of our neighborhoods. Welcome to District 5, everyone.

[00:05:15] Much of Seattle is now talking about us over here and I hope has learned more about our needs. And I hope to never have a legislator tell me again that it doesn't look good to give money to the North End. And I want to thank Julie Kang for running and for helping spotlight our needs too. It takes courage to put your name on a ballot. And I know she cares about this district. However this tout ends, I hope we can work together. And serve it.

[00:05:45] And to everyone who didn't vote for me, I will work just as hard for you. If you're frustrated about public safety, your rent, or what's happening on your block, I heard you. And I'm not going to pretend those concerns aren't real. Voting is how you hire someone. Showing up is how you hold them accountable. Erica, you were with the Nilu Jenks campaign tonight. So what messages were you hearing? And what do you think resonated with Seattle voters? You know, I think this is a North Seattle race. So it's a district.

[00:06:14] So it's a small number of people voting. And I think that we are just in a progressive upswing in Seattle. I think that Nila Jenks' opponent, Julie Kang, was not a particularly strong candidate. And, you know, it is also possible that some people were turned off by the fact that there was a large amount of dark money pouring into her race at the last minute, into Julie Kang's race. It's never good. People working on her behalf, not her campaign itself.

[00:06:43] But if you got a mailer, if you live in North Seattle, that probably came from an independent expenditure campaign that was partly funded initially by dark money. They did return that money. But, you know, I mean, the message tonight was, you know, in addition to the overwhelming sense of elation, Nila Jenks, you know, sort of said, we all have to work together. I look forward to working with Julie Kang, you know, as a neighborhood person, as somebody who's going to continue to be active in this community.

[00:07:11] She talked about having district office hours every week and actually picking up the phone, which got a big applause, which was a big applause line. I think because there is some frustration in that district that they haven't had an elected representative in more than a year now since Kathy Moore resigned a year and a half into her term. And so now it's Deborah Juarez in that seat.

[00:07:33] So, you know, I think there's excitement about being represented again up in North Seattle and a feeling that, you know, maybe they'll actually get some action from this council member and this council member may actually pick up the phone. And this is, I mean, Kathy Moore, it's not a, you know, super lefty district exactly. So this is a pretty big win for a candidate who is pretty unapologetically progressive.

[00:07:56] And, I mean, we've talked about this kind of ad nauseum on this podcast, but like a lot of the kind of post pandemic worries that people had in Seattle about crime and shit like that disorder or whatever. They haven't gone away, but they've definitely faded. And the national conversation has clearly like shifted. People are talking about affordability and all these other issues. Like, but I just have a clear sense of what you were hearing from or what she was hearing, what you're hearing tonight from voters. Like, is there an ideological shift to the left?

[00:08:26] Or is this a situation where voters gave moderates a chance for a couple of years to do things? They weren't satisfied. Now they're giving progressives a chance. They want to see how that goes. They might not be satisfied with that after, you know, next year or the year after something like that. Like, what do you think? What's your read? Is this an ideological shift in the electorate a little bit or what's going on?

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[00:09:24] Download the Ikes app today or head on over to Ikes.com. That's Ikes.com. Well, I mean, you know, every single election is its own unique special snowflake. And, you know, and again, like when we have districts, it is very easy for those for that pendulum to swing back and forth between more kind of moderate centrist candidates and more progressive candidates.

[00:09:53] So I don't want to sort of overstate the sort of vibe of the electorate in North Seattle. But I do think that in this particular year and at a time when I think there's a lot of frustration with the city council, which is made up of roughly six, depending on the issue, moderate to centrist leaders. So, you know, I mean, I think we'll I think I've said this on the podcast before, but I think we'll know a lot more next year.

[00:10:20] One thing that Nilo said tonight was that she really looks forward to implementing or to having ranked choice voting next year. She works in democracy and worked for a group that promotes ranked choice voting. And I think the feeling is that that's going to get some more progressive people in those seven seats that are going to be up next year, including the District 5 seat. So those other six seats. So, you know, we'll see.

[00:10:43] I mean, I think it was a progressive night across the country, you know, and in Washington state with with one exception, which is the the proposal to ban trans girls from playing girl sports, which was passing as a tonight. Yeah. I mean, it was a great night for progressives. It was a great night for moderates. It was a great night for all Democrats, basically. You know, a lot of these flip races you saw people all over the board ideologically.

[00:11:08] But also just because you mentioned earlier, like candidate quality, you know, I started at the local NPR station as a producer. And part of that job is like, you know, evaluating how people sound on the radio and trying to figure out, like, if you want to put them on the radio. Part of what you're doing is the research to write questions. But part of it is, you know, in 30 seconds or a minute, like, is this somebody that's got energy? Are they clear? Is there somebody you're going to want to hear from?

[00:11:34] And it's not that dissimilar from figuring out if that's the sort of person you want to have run for office. And I just sometimes just don't know what's going on in Seattle. I can understand why people run, but I don't understand why anybody ends up backing them if they don't really have what it takes. And I think we've seen a real difference in candidate quality.

[00:11:52] I don't want to piss on anybody, but I think we saw it in the last election, the last cycle here, too, in Seattle, where the where the winners, you know, had, I would say, like higher candidate quality, sort of those those those intangible qualities, just effective speakers. Right. I mean, there's just been a big difference between I think the moderates are running some less impressive candidates is what I would say in terms of their their just ability to campaign. Oh, if only Sadiq was here. I mean, I think it's not just ability to campaign.

[00:12:22] I think that once they get into office and you see this on the campaign trail, too. And I think, you know, people will see this again next year. The the people that are on the current city council, I'm not I'm not saying all of them, but a lot of times they will sort of not know about an issue that you would just assume they would, you know, are just basic city government 101 stuff. And, you know, I mean, I will single out Maritza Rivera, who is in District four in northeast Seattle.

[00:12:52] Just to say that the demon let the demonization begin, Erica. Maritza Rivera. I'm just going to point out a factual thing. I was just going to point out a factual thing, which is that from the dais. I already get Ron Davis's newsletter, but go ahead. From the dais in council chambers. She will often say that she is confused about something, that she doesn't know something. She will assert something very confidently and then have to be corrected about it. And a lot of times these are not gotchas.

[00:13:17] It's like just kind of knowing how something is funded, where the money for something comes from when you're doing the budget, that sort of thing. And so I just think, yeah, I mean, I think there is a candidate quality problem and it's not just being able to speak articulately and have clear goals that you stand by. But it's also just kind of knowing what the job is even while you're doing it. Yeah. I mean, if we're getting into lack of experience, I think we have to start talking about the mayor's office. I don't want to talk about that.

[00:13:44] But I do want to ask you what this means for the city council. Well, we've had some votes recently where people have been talking about whether or not the council could override a mayoral veto. And I'm wondering what this means because now it's kind of 5-4, although there are a couple swing voters or more than one. I mean, Joey Hollingsworth endorsed Nilo Jenks in this race, for example. So like what does this mean for the future of the council this year?

[00:14:11] And, you know, like is there – can Katie veto things and not worry about a veto even when it comes to the budget, for example? Well, I mean, I don't think that – well, first of all, I mean, Nilo Jenks is not going to join the council until after the budget most likely because she's not going to get a vote on it. But on the veto that you mentioned, that was Dan Strauss' proposal to ban RVs over time by requiring them to get permits and accept offers of shelter.

[00:14:40] And Rob Saka, who has been a swing vote, a surprising swing vote on a few things, flipped his vote basically and appeared at a press conference on Tuesday saying that he had changed his mind. So, yeah, so now it's 5-4. I would say Joey Hollingsworth is not going to flip her vote on that. She appeared at a sort of competing press conference right after the mayor's press conference to talk about why she supported this proposal from Strauss.

[00:15:05] She's also rumored to be considering a run against Wilson, so anything she can do to drum up the contrast. But Rob Saka put his finger in the wind and could tell which direction it was blowing today. Well, Saka's up next year and, you know, he's not – I mean, he is kind of the object of much fun on Blue Sky anyway. And so, you know, I think he's probably in trouble if he runs again. So, I think long term, I mean, having another progressive on the council will definitely help the mayor.

[00:15:34] You know, Deborah Juarez has not been a particular fan of the mayor, has said, you know, unflattering things about her. And I think Mila Jinks will probably be an ally. So, you know, I mean, this could just be the beginning of our own little mini blue wave next year. And I know Sandeep would argue with me if he was here, but he's not. So, there you go. Well, I mean, you're saying maybe. So, you hedged your bets. I mean, what can he say? This is the direction the wind has been blowing for a couple of years now. And so, yeah, we'll see about next year.

[00:16:03] But, I mean, it could continue. So, state initiatives for folks who like taxes on millionaires. Good news there. It looks like the effort to repeal that is losing. Of course, this is only whatever. It's probably like 25% of the vote in. But that one – I don't know if they've called it yet at the Seattle Times. But that one seems like it's heading down for defeat. Parental rights law, a little bit too close to call.

[00:16:32] And probably we can't call any of these. But so far, at least, banning trans girls from girls' sports. The yes side, 56 to 43. I mean, nationally, the numbers are even more in favor of banning trans girls from transport. So, Washington proving itself to be a more progressive state. I'm trying to find a silver lining here from your point of view. I don't think so. What do you think?

[00:16:58] I mean, I actually think Washington is proving itself to be more conservative on this issue. Well, no. It's seven in ten voters nationally do not support trans girls competing in girls' sports. Something like that. Right, but that's a poll. And this is the actual election. So, like – and so, I mean, I'm just – this particular ban is – I mean, I'm stealing this entirely. Well, not entirely, but I'm stealing this line from Scott Greenstone of KOW.

[00:17:25] But he was talking tonight on KOW on Tuesday night about how this ban is more conservative than the law in Idaho next door, a much more conservative state or at least perceived. It's the most in the country in terms of the – you mean in terms of – The requirements instead of – The requirements and the – yeah, the restrictions. I mean, the genital exams or DNA tests that are going to be required. So, I mean, you know, I would like to think it's because people were, you know, fooled by advertising.

[00:17:53] There was a ton of money that went into this. But, you know, there's a ton of money that went into all these initiatives. So, I think this is just like a wedge issue that gets some Democrats. Yeah. I mean, and we're talking about like a dozen girls in the state.

[00:18:06] And so, this, you know, this target on their back is, you know, is really out of proportion to the amount of money that was spent on this and the actual restrictions that are going to go into effect, assuming this doesn't get overturned by a lawsuit because there, of course, will be an inevitable battle in court over it. Yeah. Well, and actually, we probably won't end up getting into it, but there's been some changes on the state Supreme Court. So, who knows?

[00:18:35] Interesting, though, that on the state's parental rights law, the voters appear to be maybe going the other way. Yeah. I mean, it's a different – I mean, it's just a very different law. I think that people, you know, who don't know trans people don't know trans kids. I think it is probably easier to abstract that, whereas I think that people are more generally aware of the concept that parents aren't always good and that parents can harm children.

[00:19:03] And so, this parental – quote-unquote parental rights law would have given parents more access into their kids' mental health records at school. So, if somebody wanted to, you know, come out to a trusted adult as gay, they couldn't do that at home. You know, if they wanted to talk about birth control, if they wanted to talk about, you know, how to get an abortion, those things would have all become accessible to parents. And, you know, I don't know.

[00:19:32] I just think people can wrap their heads around the idea that not all parents are going to be supportive in a way that perhaps people can't wrap their heads around the idea that they might have a trans child someday. And if they don't think they do now and they have a young kid, you know, they might in a couple years. But, you know, I just – I think people are able to just kind of demonize and abstract things that they are not as familiar with. Well, and it's interesting because like Haywood – Brian Haywood.

[00:20:01] Brian Haywood. The backer of all three of these initiatives. Backed all three of these things. You know, this may be his one winner. But, I mean, the campaign was so – it's like – I mean, I couldn't look anywhere where it wasn't like him or Brandy Cruz. I mean, like if you're trying to win something in Washington State and try to get voters in King County, you really want to put Brandy Cruz on the front of your campaign? I mean, the whole thing was just – you know, they turned into this MAGA culture war issue as much as they possibly could. I mean, that's all it is.

[00:20:30] Which is, I think, what it is for him, 100%. And, yeah, it is just interesting though that the voters – I realize it's a separate issue that the voters went the other way on the parents' rights law, which is – you know, as you're saying, it's another anti-LGBTQ law in some way. So it is interesting. And none of these have been called, we should say, as we're recording this. Yeah, yeah, yeah. We're only 24 in. And, I mean, I will say for Seattle measures, Nilou's numbers are going to improve and she's always already way ahead. That's what everybody expects.

[00:21:00] For state measures, that's not necessarily the case. It seems like that doesn't necessarily happen. It could go in the other direction. Any other races that you were looking at this evening? Oh my God, Texas. Back to Texas. But any other races in Washington State that you were looking at that you wanted to bring up? I saw Marie Glusenkamp-Perez appears to be headed for re-election. So that's not too surprising. But anything else? Well, the other – Sandeep's favorite, Marie Glusenkamp-Perez for her.

[00:21:29] The other race that I'll just mention because it's been sort of in my social media feeds for the last few weeks is that Jerry Paulette, the state rep up in the 46th district, which is North Seattle, he was also at this party I was at tonight. And he won pretty handily over his competitor, Will Dreher.

[00:21:51] And the reason it's been all over my social media feeds is because, as you might know, if you live in North Seattle or any of the other districts that Ron Davis, who lost in that primary, he's been targeting all these districts with texts that are promoting an alternative cheat sheet that isn't the strangers and sort of going on and on about conspiracy theories involving the stranger. So that is going to end, and I think we can celebrate that.

[00:22:18] But I don't think we can say that Jerry Paulette won because of those texts supporting him and opposing Will Dreher. I think we can say he won in spite of them. It is interesting, though, that the stranger endorsed Dreher in this race. And, well, I mean, it's not like the voters always go with the stranger. That was a bad endorsement. I mean, I don't know. Like, they endorsed Thomas Awant. I think that's a bad endorsement. Like, in the same endorsement here. I'm pretty sure Adam Smith did okay in that race. That's probably true.

[00:22:47] I haven't checked either. But, I mean, like, yeah, the stranger being inconsistent and, you know, and doing things that we might think are dumb or wrong is just kind of an inevitability in every election. And it's just that Davis really clung to this one and really thinks that they would have endorsed him if not for new ownership. But this alternative cheat sheet, you know, might stick around, right? It seems like something that's getting some enthusiasm in some circles. I mean, it's not just Ron Davis, right?

[00:23:16] He's got other groups that are involved with that at this point, right? Yeah. I mean, Ron Davis, they say, is actually not involved with it. He's just promoting them. And I think it annoys some of them quite a bit. Oh, I didn't realize that. Yeah. But, yeah, I mean, I think it'll still be around. How influential it is, I don't know. I mean, they won't say who's behind it. So I think that that limits the scope of it to maybe people who are extremely on Blue Sky.

[00:23:44] And we don't have any, you know, there's no, like, metrics to say this is influential or that is influential. I mean, we know The Stranger is influential. We know The Times is influential. But I don't know how many hits they're getting on this cheat sheet outside of the people that would kind of already vote the way that they are suggesting anyway. Well, congratulations to Jerry Paulette if he pulls it out. It sounds like you're saying he will. Oh, yeah. No, I mean, he's crushing Jerry. It's a done deal. Yeah. Yeah. And maybe at some point we'll stop talking about Ron Davis on this podcast.

[00:24:14] I mean, I don't talk about Cliff Mass anymore, for example. It took a while. Jerry Paulette threatened to sing tonight. And I thought his kids were – and his wife were going to, like, literally haul him off the stage. He was sort of kept pretending he was going to sing We Shall Overcome. And I don't know how much he was actually pretending, but he kind of feigned at the end and then walked off stage and introduced somebody else. So it was pretty cool. Oh, too bad. We could be playing that audio for everybody right now.

[00:24:42] Well, that is it for this special live emergency edition of Seattle on Ice. She's Erica Barnett. He's not even here. So do I have to say? He's Sandeep Kaushik. I'm David Hyde. Thanks, everybody, so much for listening. Thank you.